Put down the propaganda pipe, folks...

and step away.

Propaganda:

Lucky the Russians had conveniently built up 20,000 soldiers just north of the border on training exercises one week prior to the crisis.

Reality:

The Russians normally keep that many troops in the region because of Chechnya, which, remember, is less than 100 miles away from South Ossetia. In fact I'm wondering what the Chechens are doing right now, since the troops that normally would be chasing Chechen rebels are currently inside Georgia.

Propaganda:

And, of course, the Russian peacekeepers already in South Ossetia, who armed the South Ossetian rebels, must not actually be Russians on Georgian soil.

Reality:

That depends on whether South Ossetia is Georgian soil. South Ossetia was an autonomous province within the Soviet Union, nominally within the administrative boundaries of the Soviet state of Georgia but never ruled from Tsibili. Georgia arbitrarily declared the autonomy of South Ossetia null and void in 1993 despite the fact that Georgia had never ruled South Ossetia, ever, not even hundreds of years ago, and only Russian troops prevented Georgia from actually making good on that. South Ossetians are "rebels" in much the same that Mexicans would be "rebels" if we declared that Mexico was our 51st state -- South Ossetia never was culturally part of Georgia, and never was ruled from Tsibili, and is about as "Georgian" as Mexico is "American".

So clearly the situation is more complex than "Georgia attacks rebels". South Ossetia is obviously too small to be an independent nation. It will have to join either Russia or Georgia. The Georgians seem determined to make sure that South Ossetia joins Russia rather than Georgia. So be it. But to say that Georgia was "justified" in invading South Ossetia because it is just a state of Georgia, is like saying that the U.S. would be "justified" in invading Mexico because it is just a state of the United States. That has not been historically true, and arbitrary lines drawn on maps do not make it true.

Conclusions:

1. American media is a bunch of propaganda bullshit. But we already knew that. Pravda on the Hudson and Izvestia on the Potomac are slicker than their Russian counterparts, but put them in a mirror and they all look the same.
2. Putin is a ruthless hard-ass. But we already knew that. Beslan, anybody? The Russian theatre hostage massacre, anybody?
3. Georgian President Saakashvili is a moron. He thought a bit of training from American trainers, combined with having more up-to-date weapons than Russian forces in the area (who are armed with old 1960's and 1970's Soviet-era gear because they're equipped to take on Chechen rebels, not modern armies), would suffice to destroy the Russian forces sent against him. He didn't seal off the tunnel between South Ossetia and Russia because he wanted to engage in a spot of ethnic cleansing and drive the Ossetians through the tunnel in front of the Georgian Army, and only *then* seal the tunnel. The South Ossetians ruined that plan by fighting back far harder than Saakashvili and his Israeli Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili (yes, the defense minister of Georgia is an Israeli citizen, go figure!) expected, thereby giving the Russians time to use the tunnel first. Then Saakashvili thought the U.S. would come help him. With what troops? Riiiiight...
4. South Ossetia will never be part of Georgia. Well, you try a bit of ethnic cleansing and genocide, folks just seem to not like that. Russia is content with a de facto independent South Ossetia that in reality is part of the Russian Federation. The Georgians are just going to have to live with the fact that they aren't going to be allowed to engage in the ethnic cleansing they wanted to engage in.
5. Russia has effectively put the Trashcanistans on notice. Russia swatted Georgia using basically light forces intended to chase down Chechen guerillas. These were not top-of-the-line elite Russian units that rolled into Georgia, folks. They were armed with old 1960's and 1970's Soviet weapons that were a generation older than the ex-Warsaw-Pact weapons that Georgia was armed with. If Russia can swat Georgia so easily without even bringing their elite units into play, the other folks along Russia's Southern frontier are on notice: Don't poke the bear. Because despite being rather shabby nowdays, the bear still has teeth and claws that can maul you but good.

More than that will have to wait. But one final thing about the U.S. media coverage. It reminds me of U.S. media coverage of the Iraq-Iran War. Iraq invaded Iran. But the U.S. media was rooting for Iraq for most of the war. WTF? Georgia invaded South Ossetia. But the U.S. media was rooting for Georgia for the entire war. WTF? Since when does starting a war make you the "good guys"? Oh yeah, that's right -- when the folks who start the war happen to be U.S. puppets. Alrighty, then!

-- Badtux the Geopolitics Penguin