Thursday, August 21, 2008

The Russian side

Some folks have accused me of "being on the side of Russia" when it comes to the Russian reaction to Georgia's attempted ethnic cleansing in South Ossetia. Uhm, no. The only side I'm on is the side of truth. And truth is, Mikheil Saakashvili made a big mistake sending the Georgian Army into South Ossetia. Even if he didn't intend the Georgian Army to engage in a little ethnic cleansing, history notes that whenever Georgian military forces have entered South Ossetia in the past, ethnic cleansing is exactly what happened, whether we're talking 1920 or 1991. Only an idiot would think that Russia wouldn't respond in that case, especially since they had handed out Russian passports to the Ossetians and thus could claim that they were coming to the aid of their citizens (Granada, anybody?).

Does this make the Russians "good guys"? No. They've gone well beyond the boundaries of the autonomous provinces that they claim to be protecting and appear to be rambling around Georgia at random for ill-defined "security reasons". They apparently also are letting various nasty paramilitaries from Chechnya, Ossetia, and elsewhere roam around the Georgian countryside pillaging and looting, and while they haven't committed atrocities themselves, they definitely aren't going about their business with a light touch. But what it does mean is that Saakashvili has nobody to blame but himself for what happened when he prodded the bear in the side with a pointy stick. Even a half-lame bear with bad eyesight is likely to maul you severely at that point.

Now for the last thing: Does this mean that Russia has achieved superpower status again? The answer is no. Russia right now is a thugocracy, ruled by whoever is the most vicious and venal. It more resembles a Mafia-ruled state than any modern first-world nation. It has a declining population, an economy that looks more like that of Saudi Arabia than of any modern state, a military that while better trained now than in the past still is no where near first-world quality, and antique Soviet-era military equipment (the good stuff is all for export, they have only purchased a few brigades worth of modern equipment and most of that sits around Moscow as a last-ditch reserve in case the West invades again like in 1941). That said, they have definitely shown that while not a world-class power, they are decidedly a regional major power, and need to be treated as such. I suspect that other regional states are observing, and reacting accordingly -- i.e., with much caution and respecting the adage, don't poke the bear!.

-- Badtux the Geopolitical Penguin

5 comments:

  1. one must never, ever forget the very first rule of bear hunting.

    never. fucking. miss.

    ReplyDelete
  2. And the second rule of bear hunting: If you don't have a Big Fuckin' Gun, don't shoot the bear. Sorry, a .22 rifle just will not do the job.

    Georgia fired a pellet rifle at the bear. The bear mauled Georgia in return. So it goes.

    - Badtux the Hunting Penguin

    ReplyDelete
  3. "Russia right now is a thugocracy, ruled by whoever is the most vicious and venal. It more resembles a Mafia-ruled state than any modern first-world nation."

    I don't disagree with that, but I have a feeling that it ain't much different througout Russia's history.

    Unfortunately, the economics of Russia came right from the Chicago Boys' school.

    Have you read the Shock Doctrine ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. "Russia right now is a thugocracy, ruled by whoever is the most vicious and venal. It more resembles a Mafia-ruled state than any modern first-world nation."

    arent you talkin about Bush's amurica

    ReplyDelete
  5. It's getting there, dCap.

    Nunya: When Putin came in, he threw all the boys from the Chicago Boy's School under the treads of a T-72 tank. He's doing classic developing country economics nowdays.

    -- Badtux the Geopolitical Penguin

    ReplyDelete

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