Thursday, August 04, 2011

The right wing and lying liars

But I repeat myself.

Latest nonsense I've heard is the right-wing talking point, "FDR turned a recession into a Depression." Uhm, what the fuck? A recession is a minor decline in GDP for a short period of time. A depression is a *major* decline in GDP for a *long* period of time. So what did GDP do between 1929 and 1940? Let's look:

Jesus fucking Christ, under Herbert Hoover GDP pretty much *HALVED* between 1929 and 1932! The small blip in 1938 after FDR tried to balance the budget looks downright *tiny* by comparison. And, uhm, in case you can't tell -- FDR took office basically in April 1933 (4 months into the year), and the economy under FDR went *UP* every year except for that tiny little blip in '38. Unlike the economy under Herbert Hoover.

Next up was, "but the Depression was caused by Hoover spending like a drunken sailor rather than balancing the budget." Really? Let's look at federal spending between 1920 and 1940:

So yes, Hoover *did* increase spending a little -- about as much as Obama increased spending, actually -- but the deficits Hoover ran in 1931 and 1932 were primarily because of a collapse in tax revenues. Tax revenues declines from around $4B in 1930 (at which point Hoover is running a sizable surplus) to under $2B in 1932. Pretty much what you expect from the fact that GDP declined by around 50% too -- if the economy is half the size, you'll collect half as much money. Duh.

So anyhow, anybody who can look at those two graphs above and say that FDR made the Great Depression worse or that Herbert Hoover caused it via excess spending is either dumber than a box of rocks, or a dishonest hack. Sorry. That's the only two answers to that question.

-- Badtux the Snarky Economics Penguin

*Graph #1 is from Wikipedia. Graph #2 is my own graph from OMB data available from a number of locations, plotted using the Mac "Numbers" spreadsheet program.

Posted by BadTux at 8/04/2011 08:47:00 PM
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14 comments:

  1. Beleck4/8/11 8:58 PM

    did they have tax cuts for the Rich back then, too?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jazzbumpa4/8/11 9:14 PM

    Beleck -

    Yes.

    Check out income disparity.

    http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2009/04/another-correlation.html

    Tux -

    After that you get "Govt Spending crowds out private investment."

    http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2010/11/private-investment-pre-and-post-ww-ii.html

    Or "Smoot-Hawley did it."

    http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2009/02/more-on-smoot-hawley.html

    New Deal denialism was quite a fad a couple of years ago. Doesn't make a lot of headlines these days.

    Cheers!
    JzB

    ReplyDelete
  3. Jazzbumpa4/8/11 9:16 PM

    The amazing thing about these talking points is that all you have to do to refute them is take a look at the data. It's not that damned hard.

    But it does take a little critical thinking and proactivity.

    Cheers!
    JzB

    ReplyDelete
  4. BadTux4/8/11 9:36 PM

    JzB, the entire Right Wing appears to have taken to heart the words of wisdom of Malibu Barbie -- "Math is hard!" -- and firmly dismiss the notion of, like, looking at actual data. Crap, the Austerians are even *proud* of that fact, sniffing about the evils of "aggregate data" vs. their line of prolix bullshit. I am baffled about how such stupid people can have accumulated so much power in America. But then again, 49.9% of all people are below average, and average ain't so smart to begin with nowadays...

    - Badtux the Numerate Penguin

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous5/8/11 1:00 AM

    The 'FDR made the Great Depression worse' is a strongly woven theme in the move to re-write history. I still hear it.

    "So anyhow, anybody who can look at those two graphs above and say that FDR made the Great Depression worse or that Herbert Hoover caused it via excess spending is either dumber than a box of rocks, or a dishonest hack."

    Yes, they are congenitally dishonest and vicious and yes they are stupid except for their one talent of LYING and they are unashamed and brilliant when it comes to exercising that ability.

    Just remember these are people who didn't even blink when George the Idiot said he was wrong about Iraq but still right to invade. Makes sense. No?

    Jill

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bukko Boomeranger5/8/11 4:14 AM

    It's not just math that is hard for the right-winger poo-flingers. "Facts are hard." At least if they are facts that condtradict what the right-wingers and Glibertarians feel. They feel like FDR must have been a failure, because they were not alive when America was a land of grinding poverty and hopelessness. I have a strong feeling they're going to experience that world again. And a lot of them are going to put guns in their mouths and give themselves a Second Amendment solution to their misery. A left-wing guy can hope, can't he?

    ReplyDelete
  7. purplepenquin5/8/11 7:43 AM

    It is hard discussing things with people who aren't willing (able?) to be rational about certain subjects and must resort to lies, ain't it?

    I have a couple pals who insists that Democrats are just socialist who want to privatize private businesses and have the gov't run everything. When I try to point them to the party's actual platform, they reply with "it doesn't matter what Democrats say they want. The moment they chant 'Death to corporations!' they expose themselves as socialist."

    How can one have a discussion with people who are more interested in just hating the people they disagree with rather than engaging in some critical thinking?

    I think it is obvious they...and others like them on all sides of the political spectrum...won't be happy until our country is involved in an actual shooting war, and they are simply fanning the flames until that happens.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Lynne5/8/11 8:07 AM

    Are you sure this isn't some kind of straw man argument? I mean, do people really think that FDR's policies made the depression worse?

    I'll bet none of those people live in Las Vegas ;)

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous5/8/11 10:27 AM

    Note the scale on your first graph. The drop in GDP was from roughly 800 to 600, which is a quarter rather than half. Still huge.

    Excellent blog, often the first one i check each day, after Krugman.

    Carl in Virginia

    ReplyDelete
  10. BadTux5/8/11 10:38 AM

    Good catch on the scale. I noticed it myself this morning, but WTF. The data is there, you can see it yourself, you don't need me to see it's a 1/3rd drop rather than a 50% drop. Still is, as you say, effin' huge.

    - Badtux the Oops Penguin

    ReplyDelete
  11. Nangleator5/8/11 11:17 AM

    I had an argument with a wingnut once where I got him to sputter that it wasn't FDR's massive government spending that got us out of the Great Depression, but WWII... because of its... massive government spending... Shut up!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Lynne5/8/11 2:57 PM

    There are a lot of people, myself included, who think that what FDR did wrong was to not spend enough. WWII and the massive spending and effort that went into that seems to bear that out. I sometimes wonder what would happen if our people and government put a similar effort into something other than war. What if we put our all towards a goal of 50% renewable power in a decade or some other lofty goal. What would happen?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Jazzbumpa5/8/11 6:08 PM

    Lynne @8:07 -

    Absolutely not a straw man. New Deal Denialism was all the rage after Amity Shlaes' book, "The Forgotten Man" came out in 2008.

    Edge of the West has gone dormant, but back in the day, Eric Rauchway spent a lot of intellectual capital refuting the nonsense. Here is a slice of the archive.

    http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/?s=new+deal+denialism

    Purple -

    Cogent comment. Well played, sir.

    I think it is obvious they ... and others like them on all sides of the political spectrum...won't be happy until our country is involved in an actual shooting war, and they are simply fanning the flames until that happens.

    I assume you mean a domestic shooting war - not just another Afghanistan/Iraq/whatever. Blood in the streets is becoming an increasingly realistic possibility. Sadly, Teabaggers have most of the guns. But I don't think that is anyone's specific goal (outside of insane paramilitary groups, of course.)

    Reducing the population to abject servitude, slavery or serfdom is clearly the goal of the Rethugs, and has been since Reagan.

    http://jazzbumpa.blogspot.com/2011/08/day-that-will-long-live-in-infamy.html

    Which is why WASF!
    JzB

    ReplyDelete
  14. momma lynne5/8/11 7:14 PM

    "What if we put our all towards a goal of 50% renewable power in a decade or some other lofty goal. What would happen?"

    Something like NASA and the entire Space program from Gemini and Apollo through the Shuttle and International Space Station.

    ReplyDelete

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