tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post5724619884224148417..comments2023-09-29T06:58:20.125-07:00Comments on Badtux the Snarky Penguin: "Inflation hawks" = dodo birdsBadTuxhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01345749557330760251noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-44226146710127547632010-11-05T10:24:12.991-07:002010-11-05T10:24:12.991-07:00Jazz -- yah, Mish used to make sense when I starte...Jazz -- yah, Mish used to make sense when I started reading him, back about late 2007. I learned stuff from him. I had never conceived of deflation, for instance. After TARP passed despite Mish's efforts to rally people against it (and there were a LOT of people against it) it seemed like he got sour and screechy. I haven't read his site for about 3 months now, and for the previous year I had mainly been going there for larfs and to see if there were any comments by "Black Swan," one of Mish's few sane readers.<br /><br />Do you read an econoblog called <a href="http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/" rel="nofollow">The Automatic Earth?</a> It's written by two Canadians with a deflationist/doomer perspective. But not "everyone for themselves" survivalists -- their overriding philosophy is to "build a lifeboat" of friends and resources who will help each other get through the coming hard times. They have a lesson of the day at the top, then reprint economics articles from a variety of publications across the world. The commenters are intelligent and mostly sane, too. Check it out!<br /><br />And Tux -- for the Repigs in 2012, Chris Christie (a Mish favourite.) As an independent for the people sick of both parties, Mayor Bloomberg. I'd bet even money on them being nominated.Bukko Boomerangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02424677168216647964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-90569252718473407512010-11-05T10:21:26.207-07:002010-11-05T10:21:26.207-07:00I've been thinking it might be Gov. Goodhair m...I've been thinking it might be Gov. Goodhair myself. The only obstacle for him that I see is his lack of personality. He doesn't quite have the personality of our former favorite President W. Then again, if his opponent is Mittens he's a shoo-in. If his opponent's Palin, he could be in trouble. Whichever way it goes, it promises to be boring.dah_sabhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02600893678085625549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-41671486195223873552010-11-04T20:04:34.300-07:002010-11-04T20:04:34.300-07:00Dope, my guess is that Obama is going to go down l...Dope, my guess is that Obama is going to go down like Jimmy Carter if the Repubs can scare up anybody who's even halfway sane to run against him. But right now it looks like Sarah Palin or her clones are the only people interested, them and sad retreads with no chance like Mittens Romney. One wild card is Governor Goodhair of Texas. Yes, he's an empty suit with no real defining attribute other than the fact that he's pleasant to look at. So what's your point? Four words: President George W. Bush. 'Nuff said ;). <br /><br />Nuns, yeah, been chewing over some economics posts. Will chew over a few more before I'm through, I suspect :). <br /><br />Bukko, if you look at the flow of funds data, the freshly printed money is making one circuit of the banking system and ending up right back in the Federal Reserve as bank deposits. Where the Fed can keep it via raising the reserve requirement, freezing withdrawals, whatever, if they want. I do agree that this creates the possibility of an inflationary overhang once the economy starts moving again, but the Fed has the tools to deal with that. <br /><br />Jazz: There is just so much misinformation out here that has no (zero) data to support it, just superstitions and wild surmises. One of the reasons I do these occasional economic series is because I hear this misinformation "in the wild", so to speak, and become irritated. So it goes :).<br /><br />- Badtux the Economics PenguinBadTuxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01345749557330760251noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-13213937721665436152010-11-04T19:40:01.445-07:002010-11-04T19:40:01.445-07:00Mish is a total rightwing libertarian ass-hat, but...Mish is a total rightwing libertarian ass-hat, but I link his blog from mine, because he sometimes shows data you aren't likely to see anywhere else.<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/trends-in-rail-traffic.html<br /><br />Cheers!<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-17430429941300446492010-11-04T19:26:28.024-07:002010-11-04T19:26:28.024-07:00Bukko -
The economists I trust: Krugman, Delong, ...Bukko -<br /><br />The economists I trust: Krugman, Delong, Chinn, and Thoma are all underwhelmed by QEII.<br /><br />The public debt, as of close of business Tuesday was $13.732 Trillion. What the hell is 600 billion, parceled out in dribs and drabs over the next 12 months supposed to accomplish? It's too late, too small, and the maturities are too short. This big bold step is basically MEH! like everything Bernanke touches.<br /><br />Banks might not have realized on marked down the $5 trillion in mortgage losses, but that does not make the loses any less real. The deflation buzzards are out there, the M1 multiplier has made a dramicic recovery, and is now only a little less than 0.9.<br /><br />If QEII inflates any asset bubble, remind me at the time and I'll be the first to say - You were right!<br /><br />Meanwhile, don't hold you're breath.<br /><br />BTW, insiders have been dumping stocks for $$$ like crazy recently.<br /><br />The world doesn't have to be truthful. The forces of nature will overwhelm the lies. <br /><br />Sadly,<br />JzB<br /><br />P.S. For your amusement, here is an interesting take on the U.S. debt situation.<br /><br />http://www.angrybearblog.com/2010/11/qeii-who-really-owns-us-treasury-debt.htmlJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-61268933763337771872010-11-04T17:50:51.751-07:002010-11-04T17:50:51.751-07:00Jazz, the new ginned-up money isn't circulatin...Jazz, the new ginned-up money isn't circulating amongst us proles, but it is in the hands of the bankmaggots. And they're pumping these Feddollars into gold, silver and other hard assets. QE II is being used to inflate a bunch of asset bubbles, similar to the way that the mortgage fraud money supply expansion was used to inflate the housing bubble. The insiders know that U.S. clownbux are illusory pieces of nothing, so they're desperately trying to swap them for real things. This is going to screw over the proles, because they have to buy real things like gasoline, food that's made from commodities whose prices are being driven up, etc. We have inflation of the money supply, a supply that's given to the insiders. Eventually, that money supply inflation will work its way through to the proles in the form of price inflation in what they need to survive.<br /><br />I disagree with Tux about the $5 trillion in housing values that have disappeared. In the real world, it has. Houses are worth less. But thanks to the Financial Accounting Standards Board changing the "mark to market" rule, banks can pretend that houses are still worth that missing $5 trillion. Ditto for all the mortgage-backed securities based on them. So the imaginary money supply hasn't deflated. It exists in a pretend world. And bit by bit, the Fed is trading the bad debt for "real" dollars. (As real as those things can be considered to be.)<br /><br />In a truthful world, there would be deflation. But America, and most other monetary systems, exist in a pretend world. Until something pops the pretence, the debauchery of the dollar will continue. The pop is likely to be unexpected and catastrophic. I think the insiders are preparing for that by buying up gold, silver, oil, etc. in the same way that corporate insiders sell their companies' inflated stock when they know the business is going bankrupt.Bukko Boomerangerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02424677168216647964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-22593394389030354002010-11-04T12:44:50.961-07:002010-11-04T12:44:50.961-07:00Yeah. This is why I disagreed with Bukko about th...Yeah. This is why I disagreed with Bukko about the demise of the dollar. Aint gonna happen.<br /><br />In/de-flation is all about the money supply. But if it isn't circulating, it might as well not exist. And QE II - except to monitarists, who seem quite excited - is to small and too gradual to do much.<br /><br />Another reason jobs aren't going to recover is that the the CEO of Gizmo got a huge bonus for shipping the jobs to Gizmo-China.<br /><br />The next few years will be economic doldrums, at best. Eventually people will have had enough. The result will be war or revolution. I see no reason for optimism, anywhere.<br /><br />Blccchhh,<br />JzBJazzbumpahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07337490817307473659noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-59695345518064333312010-11-04T10:29:19.226-07:002010-11-04T10:29:19.226-07:00umm, Holy Crap Badtux, THIS is what you've ben...umm, Holy Crap Badtux, THIS is what you've ben chewing on since the election?nunyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08833886980442919570noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9612609.post-40456204637106602522010-11-04T00:18:11.020-07:002010-11-04T00:18:11.020-07:00"Worries about debasing the money supply via ..."Worries about debasing the money supply via excessive printing, given that reality, are just plain debased, pure and simple."<br /><br />Yeah, but it gives them a great excuse to do nothing, and most people are none the wiser. Besides, they need that money to make asset bubbles in developing countries so they can ruin their economies & buy up all their public utilities. Creating jobs is for chumps.<br /><br />Anyway, the Party of No is exactly what Obama wants. He can then pretend he doesn't want to be a Democratic Bush, then run against the Party of No in 2012. Everybody wins! The only mystery is which developmentally disabled Republican will be given the nomination, so as to hold up their end of the bargain with Obama. I can't wait!dah_sabhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02600893678085625549noreply@blogger.com